Hungary: A U-Turn into a democratic future?
By: Michelle Schmidt
May 13, 2026
After 16 years under Victor Orbán, Hungarian voters have elected a new government following a landslide victory for Péter Magyar and the Tisza party in the national elections held on April 12.
This week’s graph shows two key trends: mass mobilization for democracy and resistance against the regime (0 = low, 4 = high), and the strength of parliamentary opposition (0 = highly restricted, 2 = fully free). While opposition parties have remained constrained, citizen mobilization has increased in recent years.
Hungary has experienced a steady process of autocratization since 2010, ranking among the top cases globally in terms of democratic decline by 2025. Under Orbán’s vision of an "illiberal state”, the Fidesz government has systematically weakened checks and balances, limited judicial independence, and tightened control over media and public discourse.
A central feature of this process has been the weakening of opposition parties (blue line). While they could formally operate, their ability to challenge the government was limited by unequal media access, smear campaigns, and politicized legal persecution and financial pressure. Electoral rules have further tilted the playing field, leaving opposition parties with little real capacity to hold the government accountable.
At the same time, Hungarian society has shown increasing signs of resistance. In recent years, large-scale protests have mobilized citizens across the country (red line). After a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, participation rebounded strongly. In 2024, tens of thousands protested following a presidential pardon scandal in 2023, leading to the president's resignation in February 2024. Further mass demonstrations against the government were sparked by corruption allegations raised by Péter Magyar, evolving into a broader wave of mobilization.
In June 2025, the famously banned Pride March attracted more than 200.000 participants, underlining both the scale and diversity of civic mobilization in Hungary. Across these events, citizens have continued to push back against the government, reflected in high levels of regime opposition group activity and broad public demand for political change (green line).
Encouragingly, this growing mobilization, the expansion of regime opposition groups, and recent election results can be interpreted as signs of a possible democratic “U-Turn”. Research shows that sustained civic engagement, strong civil society, and mass protest movements often play a decisive role in reversing autocratization. Hungary’s recent developments suggest that, even after years of democratic decline, collective action from society can help democracy “bounce back”, regaining similar or higher levels of democratic quality. Whether this momentum will translate into lasting institutional change, however, remains to be seen.
Note: The current V-Dem dataset v16 contains data for up until the end of 2025. The data does not cover developments in 2026.
